Cómo mueren las democracias

The grand stage of democracy, once thought to be safeguarded by ironclad constitutions and the vigilance of its people, now faces a peril far more insidious than the thunder of military coups. No longer do tanks roll through capital streets or generals seize power with a sudden, violent decree. Instead, the demise of democratic systems in the modern era unfolds subtly, incrementally, often at the hands of leaders who rise through the very electoral processes they then begin to dismantle. This slow, almost imperceptible erosion can be dangerously deceptive, maintaining a facade of legality even as the substance of self-governance drains away.

The strength of a democracy, it turns out, rests not merely on its written laws but on unwritten rules, the "soft guardrails" that prevent political competition from devolving into all-out war. Two such norms stand paramount: mutual toleration and institutional forbearance. Mutual toleration is the understanding that political rivals, despite their fierce disagreements, are legitimate competitors for power, not enemies to be vanquished or purged. Without it, the opposition transforms into a threat, and politics becomes a zero-sum battle for survival. Institutional forbearance, on the other hand, is the practice of restraint, where leaders refrain from wielding their legal powers to the absolute hilt, even when technically permissible. It is the wisdom to underuse certain prerogatives to preserve the spirit of democratic checks and balances, rather than engaging in "constitutional hardball" that could imperil the entire system.

But how does one identify a leader who might, wittingly or unwittingly, steer a democracy towards its end? There are four clear behavioral warning signs that serve as a litmus test. First, a politician might reject, in words or actions, the established democratic rules of the game. Second, they may deny the legitimacy of their political opponents, painting them as criminals, traitors, or outsiders. Third, a concerning sign is the toleration or even active encouragement of violence. Finally, a leader who shows a readiness to curtail the civil liberties of opponents, including a free press, signals a profound threat to democratic health.

Historically, political parties have acted as crucial gatekeepers, filtering out extremist demagogues and ensuring that only candidates committed to democratic norms could reach the mainstream. When these gatekeepers fail, either through opportunism, fear, or miscalculation, the path is cleared for figures who, once in power, begin to systematically undermine the institutions that elevated them. From Hugo Chávez in Venezuela to Alberto Fujimori in Peru, the pattern repeats: elected leaders use the very mechanisms of democracy - elections, referendums, legal reforms - to dismantle the judiciary, silence the media, and rewrite electoral rules to consolidate their own power, often all under the guise of improving governance or fighting corruption.

The chilling echoes of these foreign experiences have become increasingly audible within the United States. While American democracy has historically been robust, its unwritten norms of mutual toleration and institutional forbearance have shown signs of fraying, particularly in recent decades. The rise of intense partisan polarization, where political opponents are increasingly viewed as existential threats rather than legitimate rivals, has weakened the very foundations upon which the system relies. When political actors abandon restraint and embrace "constitutional hardball," the democratic guardrails weaken, making the system vulnerable to a leader exhibiting the four warning signs.

The erosion of these norms creates a dangerous feedback loop: as toleration diminishes, the temptation to abandon forbearance grows, leading to escalating acts of institutional sabotage. This gradual process can make it difficult for citizens to recognize the danger until it is too late, as the outward forms of democracy - elections, legislatures, courts - remain, even as their underlying spirit and function are hollowed out.

To safeguard democracy, a return to these essential unwritten rules is paramount. It demands that political parties rediscover their gatekeeping function, refusing to legitimize or ally with anti-democratic forces. It calls for leaders to exercise restraint and recognize the legitimacy of their opponents, even in times of deep division. This path is not about abandoning principle but about upholding the shared commitment to democratic processes themselves, ensuring that the competition for power remains within the bounds of mutual respect and institutional integrity.